top of page

😡 Here we go again 😡




🦴 I have a bone to pick: over and over again, modelling of carbon dioxide removal potential in policy circles neglects some of the most important technologies available. And it has real-world implications.


🗞️ Today, during a workshop hosted by the European Commission on funding for CDR, Ramboll presented research they had conducted for the EU Commission on the European CDR supply landscape.


🤔 Overall, it was a great presentation (will be made available soon). However, the estimated supply in 2030/35 grossly underestimated the potential of biochar carbon removal (hashtag#BCR) and enhanced rock weathering (hashtag#ERW) in particular (see graph - with my corrected estimates overlaid).


Specifically (references in the comments):


💚 For BCR, it shows around 0.2Mt in 2030 and 0.4Mt for 2035. Estimates by the European Biochar Industry Consortium (EBI) put the figures at 2.4Mt in 2030 and >10Mt for 2035 (so 12x and 25x respectively)


🪨 For ERW, it shows 0.2Mt for 2030 and basically the same for 2035. The Enhanced Weathering Alliance (EWA) estimates the potential for 2035 at around 18Mt and a recent study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) with Deutscher Verband für negative Emissionen e.V. (DVNE) puts it at just below BCR, so around >1Mt for 2030 and 6Mt for 2035 (so 5x and 30x respectively)


🤷‍♂️ All to say, that these numbers are not conservative, they are absurd. For those who need a reminder: these two CDR approaches easily account for >90% of all CDR delivered today (and likely will in 2025). So why assume that in 2030 - just 5 years from now - they would be <5% of deliveries?


👎 Anyone who follows me here knows: I support ALL CDR. We will need ALL CDR. However, modelling for CDR - especially in the EU - keeps focusing almost exclusively on hashtag#DACCS and hashtag#BECCS, neglecting BCR and ERW in particular (think 2040 Climate Target Impact Assessment as a second example).


❗ The consequence is that policies and funding are designed with the same emphasis. This was very visible today, where many of the funding opportunities presented originate in CCUS, and can maybe be opened to BECCS/DACCS.


❓ My main question - which I do not have an answer to - is why we keep seeing this?


🗣️ What do you think?




Comments


  • LinkedIn

© 2023 SEBASTIAN MANHART

bottom of page