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🇪🇺 Just wrapped up a week of meetings across European institutions. Now that the dust of June’s election has settled, it was a perfect time to touch base with policy makers from the EU Commission, EU Council, and EU Parliament. Key takeaways:
✅ Everyone gets it: from working level to top officials, folks stress the role of CDR in EU’s net zero strategy. The question is no longer if, but only when and how to make CDR a reality across Europe. Quote: “CDR is a no brainer”. This is huge progress.
🇺🇸 Trump’s election: the optimistic read is that the EU can use the next four years to lead on climate, attracting companies and investment. But what I am hearing is that EU countries could take Trump as an excuse to fail their own targets and roadblock progressive policy.
🎯 2040 CDR target: top of the agenda right now is a dedicated CDR target in next year’s Climate Law Amendment. The Commission seems to be opting for the path of least resistance (=no CDR target). Our focus will have to be on Parliament and Council, where there are many supporters.
😎 CRCF is looking good: yes, we need some final tweaks, but enthusiasm all around about the progress of the CRCF. Work on an enhanced weathering methodology might also start in early 2025. Optimistic about the first CRCF units being certified in 2026.
📈 ETS integration: across the board, support for integrating CDR into the ETS from 2031 abounds. With the CRCF, the road seems paved. Resistance seems to come only from the NGO community, who fears primarily that fossil emissions could be offset with temporary removals, an outcome that has to be avoided.
💶 Where is the money? I have serious doubts that we will see any EU funding for CDR pre-2031, except the oversubscribed Innovation Fund. Focus is shifting to member states and unleashing subsidies there, just like Denmark and Sweden have been doing.
😡 Urgency, urgency, urgency: I had to hide my frustration a few times. Yes, we need to operate responsibly. But, no, we do not have time to wait any longer. And, no, CDR won’t magically come out of the tab in gigatons in 2040. Period.
➡ Overall, the picture that emerges is that a LOT of CDR policy breakthroughs seem to be scheduled for 2026, a potential step change which could finally unleash the CDR industry. But what happens until 2026? The next 1.5 years could be very tough for CDR companies.
🙏 Big thanks to the policy makers who graced us with their time and insights: Kurt Vandenberghe , Fabien Ramos, Andrea Klaric, Marina García Alonso, Thomas Meier, Michelangelo Chini, Joaquim Nunes de Almeida, Lídia Pereira, Radan Kanev, Maria Malova, Miloš Grajcar, Adrian Leip, Giuseppe Pellegrino, emmanuel PETEL, Tsjerk Terpstra, and many more.
👏 And, of course, Negative Emissions Platform for making this all happen. Chris, Elisabeth, Atilla, Alina, and Lambrini - you rock!
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