🌄 CBAM: the next frontier for carbon removals?

💭 When I think about what will generate the biggest demand for CDR in the coming decade, I come back to three things: 

1️⃣ EU ETS integration

2️⃣ International credit procurement towards the EU 2040 target

3️⃣ Use for EU CBAM carbon price deduction.

💪 The last one is the big underdog amongst the three. Yet, unbeknownst to many, things are happening! 

🇪🇺 The EU Commission is currently working on detailed rules of what the use of international credits - likely under Article 6 - would look like.

💰 The potential impact would be huge! While the CBAM will cover a small amount of EU imports (<5%), we are still talking in the range of €200b/year of imports and potential carbon revenues/costs of €5b-€17b in the early 2030s.

🚛 Allowing carbon credits to offset some of these costs will be very appealing to exporting  countries. It would allow them to keep value and capital within their borders instead of handing it over to the EU.

📈 It would also likely lead to a proliferation of ETS and integration of credits in them. 

💶 All to say: the implications could be huge. It could bootstrap the development of CDR projects all across the world, providing a reliable, compliance-based demand generator.

🤔 But it all comes down to the details: what credits exactly? How many? When?

🗓️ To unpack this in depth, Eve Tamme and I are hosting a LIVE CDR Policy Scoop with CBAM expert Dan Maleski. Make sure to tune in on Monday, February 2nd:  🕘 9 am PT 🇺🇸 | 🕛 12 pm ET 🇺🇸 | 🕔 5pm GMT 🇬🇧| 🕕 6 pm CET 🇪🇺

🔗 https://lnkd.in/dvGXDQ8d

👀 Few understand this topic better than Dan. Make sure to check out our last episode with him from 2025 to get more context on where CDR stood in CDR prior to the current developments.

❓ What is your take? A lot of hot smoke or serious potential? Leave us your questions and observations so we can put them to Dan.

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