🚨 EU 2040 Climate Target: The battle lines are drawn.

🇪🇺 This week, lawmakers in the European Parliament’s environment committee submitted their amendments to the Commission’s 2040 climate proposal - arguably the most important climate file in Europe right now.

Here’s the gist:

🟥 S&D (center-left): Push for *at least* 90% domestic emission cuts by 2040 with NO outsourcing to “poorer” countries. Carbon credits only as “add-ons”, never to achieve the main target.

🟢 Greens: Even tougher: 90–95% reductions, ZERO USE of carbon credits with strong limits on removals in both the ETS and the 2040 target.

💛 EPP (center-right - lead party): More flexible with carbon credits starting 2031 (not 2036) and removals into ETS from 2028. Also call for “structured dialogues” with industry and lighter compliance costs.

🔵 Renew (center): Siding with S&D/Greens against international credits, arguing every cent should stay in EU decarbonisation.

🟦 ECR/ID (right-wing): Hostile towards the entire 2040 climate target and any increased ambition.

🙌 With this high-profile file, the topic of both international credits and carbon removal is really moving into the mainstream in Europe! While the position of the lead EPP party in general is favourable to CDR, it has to be noted that almost 40 EPP MEPs (21% of the block) are siding with the far right and asking for the proposal as a whole to be rejected.

🌍 In this context, I highly recommend checking out the The Global South Carbon Dioxide Removal Coalition (GS CDR), which has done some tremendous work on defining what high-quality international credits should look like for Europe to achieve its 2040 target with integrity.

Meanwhile, on the Council side:

🇩🇰 The Danish EU Presidency is circulating a fresh compromise proposal among member states this week. Details remain under wraps, but environment ministers are still expected to adopt a common position on September 18.

🇫🇷 France had argued the 2040 target should be decided at the level of EU leaders in the European Council — a move that, due to unanimity rules, could stall or even sink the effort as a whole

⚠️ The risk grows that the EU could arrive at COP30 in Belém without a credible updated 2035 NDC in its pocket.

🧐 These are fascinating developments. EVERYTHING seems to be on the table: more/less ambition, no/more international credits, 2028/2031 CDR ETS integration. I just really hope the EU doesn’t rock up at COP with no NDC…

❓ What is your take? And any additional insights I am missing?

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