🤔 How many international credits will the EU need?

🇪🇺 You might be following the intense debates in Europe over using international credits to achieve its 2040 climate target. But it’s only 3%, right?

📦 Well… It’s worth unpacking that. First, it’s 3% of the EU’s 1990 emissions (5.6Gt or 4.8Gt without the UK). This brings us to a conservative estimate of around 144Mt, which would actually be almost a third of the EU’s expected 2040 emissions of 460Mt.

👉 So the real number to have in mind is 30%, not 3%.

😮 Next, we need to analyse whether these are meant to apply in 2040 only (144Mt) or cumulatively, starting from 2036. According to a World Economic Forum and BeZero Carbon analysis (see comments), this could actually mean as much as 400Mt.

📈 Finally, there are currently proposals floated in the EU Parliament to start the ramp-up as early as 2031. I haven’t seen exact numbers, but my understanding is this could almost double the amount of international credits to around 800Mt.

🙅 Or - if some voices get their way - we might have no international credits at all.

🤝 As you can see, we are looking at a huge difference in options and potential impact. The EU could pretty much single-handedly create and scale the market for Article 6 credits.

⚠️ One crucial point is lost in the current debates which - in my opinion - is actually more important than volumes: what type of credits are we talking? If it is cheap reduction credits, I would favour no credits at all. If - on the other hand - we would limit it to high-quality removals, I would be comfortable with these high amounts.

🎙️ A lot to discuss! That is why Eve Tamme and I decided to invite Fiona Mugambi from Octavia Carbon and Policy Lead at the The Global South Carbon Dioxide Removal Coalition (GS CDR) onto the CDR Policy Scoop.

🏛️ Together, we will be diving into this and many other angles related to the use of Global South credits within EU climate policy.

🗓️ Register today for Tuesday, 23rd September at 9am PDT 🇺🇸 / noon EDT 🇺🇸 / 6pm CEST 🇪🇺: https://lnkd.in/dypB3FSC

❓ What is your take? International credits: blessing or curse?

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