🔮 What lies ahead for CDR policy in 2025 🔮

🤩 We made some pretty substantial gains in 2024, as I discussed yesterday. Can we take it to the next level this year?

🏛️ In some ways, we’re starting in a better position - with numerous elections all concluded, new administrations settled in, ready to get to work.

🦸 CDR is also slowly becoming mainstream and people are becoming more and more familiar with both the need for it and its role in the climate crisis. Champions can be found all across civil service and government

So what will 2025 shape up to be? Here are my top four predictions:

1️⃣ Trump won’t change much: despite all the valid concerns, I expect CDR to remain largely under the political radar in the US. Therefore, it's likely that existing policies (e.g. 45Q) will remain in place. It’s unlikely that we will see new policies (e.g. CDRIA). The only (very large) exception is the Farm Bill, where substantive gains for BCR and ERW could be made if it finally gets over the threshold.

2️⃣ The year of pre-compliance: we are heading towards compliance markets. 2025 will be a key year in which the nature of CDR integration will be decided, often behind the scenes: UK, Japan, California, and - crucially - the EU will be working on proposals this year which will shape the next decade or more. In Europe, we will also see negotiations of the Green Claims Directive start (and finish?), a key intermediary step on the way to compliance.

3️⃣ Implementation of Article 6: with roadblocks removed, I expect to see a lot of action around intergovernmental agreements on CDR under the UN’s Article 6.2, led by the pioneer Switzerland. Article 6.4 will be trailing behind (at least for durable CDR), but also increasingly take shape in the form of specific methodologies for each CDR approach.

4️⃣ The battle over dedicated CDR targets: in Europe, the amendment of the Climate Law will offer a unique opportunity to embed 2040 CDR targets across 27 countries, although this will be an uphill battle in the current political environment. In Germany, however, the new government post election is likely to pick up and finalise the CDR strategy, including dedicated CDR targets for 2035, 2040, and 2045.

💸 What about specific funding for CDR? This is where I am the least optimistic. While we will see the EU tackle this issue head on (finally!), I doubt that we will see significant new funds for CDR unlocked, including public procurement. There just isn't an appetite for it in most countries (hope to be proven wrong…). Instead, our best hopes are on (pre)-compliance markets.

❓ So, what’s your take for 2025? What are you hoping to see happen?

💚 Looking forward to another year working with this amazingly passionate community to realise the potential of CDR through progressive policy in 2025. Onwards!

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