
💵 The billion dollar question - and now we have answers! CDR.fyi and OPIS, A Dow Jones Company just released their first of a kind report: “Bridging the Gap: Durable CDR Market Pricing Survey”. And it’s goooood.
🥊 The one sentence punchline: suppliers and buyers have very different understandings of where prices are today and will be in the future.
Some nuggets that stood out to me:
1️⃣ “Across most CDR methods, the prices purchasers view as expensive are consistently below the profitable price points for suppliers.”
2️⃣ “In most cases, purchasers are expected to choose the lowest-cost options that allow them to credibly claim they are reaching their climate targets. This behaviour would favour durable biomass-based methods in the short to medium term.”
3️⃣ “High-cost CDR suppliers, on the other hand, will need to find a way to reduce their costs and pricing significantly to secure large-scale offtake agreements and potentially their survival.”
4️⃣ Breakeven costs for suppliers in 2030 vary massively: from $80/t to $370/t for BECCS, $300/t to $600/t for DACCS, and $50/t to $600/t for BCR.
5️⃣ Suppliers of all kinds stating Breakeven prices of $140-$340/mt and Reasonable Profit at $180-$430/mt for 2030 will be a bit of a reality check for many buyers.
👉 This report is a reality check. For everyone. We need to bridge this expectation gap one way or another, and prospective CDR suppliers in particular should take note and adjust their models if they are to survive and thrive.
⁉️ What is your take? What surprised you?
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