⚖️ Without Like-for-Like, net-zero does not stop warming

😳 There, I said it. A statement that will lead to a lot of nodding for some, and fury for others…

👀 It is also the takeaway from a fascinating paper just released by Carbon Gap and authored by Sylvain Delerce. 

🤓 Quick recap: What is the Like-for-Like (LfL) principle? From the paper: “Like-for-Like neutralisation requires balancing anthropogenic GHG sources with removals by sinks of similar or greater permanence than the carbon pool the emissions originate from and / or the GHG atmospheric lifetime”. 

In practice:

🏭 Fossil CO2 emissions –> permanent CDR

🌲 Biogenic emissions, including from other short-lived biogenic climate pollutants –> time-matched temporary CDR

🤷 So why is it “controversial”? 

❎ Some - especially those working on nature based removals (here classified as “temporary”) see it as a tool to keep NBS out of policy instruments and financing.

🌡️ Others - largely from the permanent CDR side, but also many climate scientists and the author of this paper - argue that it is an essential principle without which we risk achieving net-zero on paper but not “durable” net-zero, hence with continuing global warming.

⚠️ The paper makes the point that the current net-zero country pledges (N = 148) are NOT going to lead to durable net-zero unless the LfL principle is embedded quickly into policies used to achieve them.

🇪🇺 For Europe, Carbon Gap recommends integrating LfL into key EU proposals, from ETS integration, to the Climate Law, to Claims Regulation. Bigger picture: Separate targets and updating GHG protocols.

📈 As for NBS, the paper acknowledges that there will be a repurposing of those removals away from compensating fossil emissions, but also stresses that there are increasing amounts biogenic emissions that lend themselves towards NBS compensation.

🔥 Clearly, a complex and heated topic. For those keen to dive deeper into it, I recommend joining the fireside chat Carbon Gap is hosting today at 5pm CET here on LinkedIn featuring the author Sylvain Delerce, as well as Beth Weed, Ken Branson, and pierre friedlingstein: https://lnkd.in/eYefaxdY 

📑 Make sure to check out the paper in full here: https://lnkd.in/eUK5Njia

👇 I will also link a few more useful resources in the comments.

❓ Over to you: do you agree with this proposal? Or is LfL indeed a deathblow to NBS?

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